Thinking about rural transport: The implications of technological change for rural transport
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This thinkpiece examines the likely impacts of emerging technologies on transport and related sectors over the next 15 to 20 years and how transport can adapt to the demands of climate change, including the avoidance of the need to travel.
Topics covered include the implications of alternative fuels, how developments in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and broadband may affect the need for travel and use of new technologies in the provision of public transport. The current rural transport context is described starting with a discussion on what is ‘rurality’.
The car is expected to remain the dominant means of transport over the forthcoming 15 years or so with changes in technology seeing a movement away from reliance on fossil fuels to greater use of low-carbon cars. The short to medium term is likely to see continued efficiency improvements in existing technology coupled with increasing adoption of alternative fuels (such as Liquid Petroleum Gas and Compressed Natural Gas). This will increase the cost of new vehicles but reduce running costs. This raises a question about affordability for those people on lower incomes, pending the appearance of these vehicles on the second-hand market and particularly if accompanied by increases in fuel prices.
In the rather longer term, alternative fuel technologies will assume more significance in the form of biofuels, electricity and hydrogen (the latter leading to 'fuel cell' vehicles, subject to the necessary technical development).
The use of new fuels will depend on the operating conditions. Electric vehicles are currently more suited to shorter distances in an urban environment but improvements in battery and other technology could alter this picture. Hybrid vehicles are available and more adaptable to longer journeys.
The report outlines the potential benefits and disadvantages of the various fuel options. An expansion in the use of biofuels has wider implications for rural areas. There will be competition between the use of land for food production and the growing of crops for manufacturing the fuel but opportunities to create employment through biofuel production. Production of biogas (from for example animal waste) is growing in certain countries and has the potential for localised/community production. Rural areas could become net exporters of fuel and so gain economically as a result.
The report concludes that a 30-year timeframe is probably too short to see a single major change in transport technology. More likely the period will witness a series of simultaneous technological advancements.
This is one of 5 new thinkpieces on transport in rural areas. The other thinkpieces are:
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